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Quantifying Spatial and Temporal
Dimensions of Premonitory
Animal Behavior of the July 16, 1990 Luzon Earthquake
Ricardo M. Zarco*, Jose Tiburcio S. Nicolas*, Mario J. Aguja*
Arturo S. Daag** and Anabelle F. Ringor**
*University of the Philippines
**Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
INTRODUCTION
Animals may be able to anticipate strong earthquakes. The magnitude 7.8 July 16,1990 Luzon earthquake provided the opportunity to investigate this phenomenon amidst the suffering it brought. The task of this research is to quantify or measure some aspects of animal behavior, to assess the pragmatic value of this phenomenon as an auxiliary short term earthquake predictor.
Examples of these types of behavior include dog howling, excitability of animals in cages, cockroach swarms and other odd behavior. It is these types of behavior prior to the July 16 earthquake which are referred to as premonitory animal behavior.
Research in the People's Republic of China (PROC) has consistently shown the association of premonitory animal behavior to ground rupture location (faultline, fracture zones) and proximity to the epicenter. The literature on the subject is not available in this country so it was thought best to conduct independent inquiry and see for ourselves if the Chinese findings are cross validated in the Philippine experience. The emphasis of this investigation is the development of a technique to measure intensity of precursory animal behavior in various localities where they are suspect to be highest and compare these values against a control
group.
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